Fitch says the Strait of Hormuz closure caused a logistics-driven supply shock but has not altered the market’s underlying trajectory. Assuming the strait reopens around end‑July (implying a five‑month closure), Fitch’s baseline expects rapid regional production recovery, strong non‑OPEC supply growth and potentially more aggressive OPEC policy to push the market back into surplus in Q4 2026 and weigh on prices; the house forecasts 2026 Brent at $87/bbl. Timing is highly uncertain, creating bina

Fitch says the Strait of Hormuz closure caused a logistics-driven supply shock but has not altered the market’s underlying trajectory. Assuming the strait reopens around end‑July (implying a five‑month closure), Fitch’s baseline expects rapid regional production recovery, strong non‑OPEC supply growth and potentially more aggressive OPEC policy to push the market back into surplus in Q4 2026 and weigh on prices; the house forecasts 2026 Brent at $87/bbl. Timing is highly uncertain, creating binary price risk; current gains reflect a temporary logistics shock rather than permanent loss of production capacity, and Brent should drop sharply from March–July highs after reopening.