Fitch says the Strait of Hormuz closure caused a logistics-driven supply shock
but has not altered the market’s underlying trajectory. Assuming the strait
reopens around end‑July (implying a five‑month closure), Fitch’s baseline
expects rapid regional production recovery, strong non-OPEC supply growth and
potentially more aggressive OPEC policy to push the market back into surplus in
Q4 2026 and weigh on prices; the house forecasts 2026 Brent at $87/bbl. Timing
is highly uncertain, creating binary price risk; current gains reflect a
temporary logistics shock rather than permanent loss of production capacity, and
Brent should drop sharply from March–July highs after reopening.
