Goldman Sachs estimates IPO lock-up expiries could introduce about $274bn (HKD2.13tn) of newly tradable stock supply in Hong Kong over the next 12 months. The bank expects strong demand — particularly from passive index funds and southbound flows — to act as a key liquidity buffer and absorb much of the supply. Historically, stocks typically fall 4–7% in the 3–6 months after lock-up expiry with wide cross-sectional dispersion; near-term returns are driven by the proportion of shares unlocked rel

Goldman Sachs estimates IPO lock-up expiries could introduce about $274bn (HKD2.13tn) of newly tradable stock supply in Hong Kong over the next 12 months. The bank expects strong demand — particularly from passive index funds and southbound flows — to act as a key liquidity buffer and absorb much of the supply. Historically, stocks typically fall 4–7% in the 3–6 months after lock-up expiry with wide cross-sectional dispersion; near-term returns are driven by the proportion of shares unlocked relative to total equity, while mid-term returns are linked to the post-unlock increase in free float and pre-expiry price performance. Companies with high cornerstone ownership, especially domestic cornerstone investors, tend to face larger sell pressure when lock-ups end.