Goldman Sachs estimates IPO lock-up expiries could introduce about $274bn
(HKD2.13tn) of newly tradable stock supply in Hong Kong over the next 12 months.
The bank expects strong demand — particularly from passive index funds and
southbound flows — to act as a key liquidity buffer and absorb much of the
supply. Historically, stocks typically fall 4–7% in the 3–6 months after lock-up
expiry with wide cross-sectional dispersion; near-term returns are driven by the
proportion of shares unlocked relative to total equity, while mid-term returns
are linked to the post-unlock increase in free float and pre-expiry price
performance. Companies with high cornerstone ownership, especially domestic
cornerstone investors, tend to face larger sell pressure when lock-ups end.
