ING's Chris Turner said if the Bank of Japan raises rates 25bp to 1.00% on Tuesday but pauses until December, the yen should stay weak. That path would keep inflation-adjusted real rates clearly negative. If volatility eases further this summer and carry trades reassert, the yen will remain a funding currency. USD/JPY could break above 160.70 with risk of climbing into the 161–162 area, where the BOJ would be more likely to intervene.

日本央行副行长内田真一：与之前相比，经济显著放缓的风险似乎已减少。

Speaking with Macron, Trump said the Strait of Hormuz will be fully open on Friday and the US-Iran agreement has been electronically signed. He said the agreement text will be released after Friday and that sanctions will not be lifted until Iran fulfills its obligations. Vice President Vance will sign the agreement; Trump said he may or may not sign. He said he seeks good relations with Iran under robust oversight and reiterated that Iran will not possess nuclear weapons. He added he hopes to resolve the Lebanon issue and noted oil prices are sharply lower while equities are rising.