ING's Chris Turner said if the Bank of Japan raises rates 25bp to 1.00% on
Tuesday but pauses until December, the yen should stay weak. That path would
keep inflation-adjusted real rates clearly negative. If volatility eases further
This summer and carry trades reassert, the yen will remain a funding currency.
USD/JPY could break above 160.70 with risk of climbing into the 161–162 area,
where the BOJ would be more likely to intervene.
