Jarden economists warn the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cannot meaningfully
speed the natural decline in inflation through interest-rate adjustments. They
say inflation composition matters more than headline level and forecast core
inflation will stay above 3% until H2 2027. Large upside surprises have been
driven mainly by fuel costs—external and outside officials' control—rather than
domestic overheating. Jarden says this pressure should ease if Middle East
tensions normalize, but flags the key market risk is the extent to which cost
pressures pass through to Australian goods and services.