Jarden economists warn the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cannot meaningfully speed the natural decline in inflation through interest-rate adjustments. They say inflation composition matters more than headline level and forecast core inflation will stay above 3% until H2 2027. Large upside surprises have been driven mainly by fuel costs—external and outside officials' control—rather than domestic overheating. Jarden says this pressure should ease if Middle East tensions normalize, but flags the

Jarden economists warn the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cannot meaningfully speed the natural decline in inflation through interest-rate adjustments. They say inflation composition matters more than headline level and forecast core inflation will stay above 3% until H2 2027. Large upside surprises have been driven mainly by fuel costs—external and outside officials' control—rather than domestic overheating. Jarden says this pressure should ease if Middle East tensions normalize, but flags the key market risk is the extent to which cost pressures pass through to Australian goods and services.