Capital Economics economist Jack Allen-Reynolds says euro-area inflation is unlikely to rise sharply further. May inflation was driven by fuel, and fuel prices should retreat in the near term; if oil and gas shipments via the Strait of Hormuz resume in coming months, energy inflation is unlikely to increase, reducing risk of second‑round effects. Food and service inflation may accelerate in H2 but is expected to have only a small impact, so overall H2 inflation should rise only modestly.

2026-06-17

Capital Economics economist Jack Allen-Reynolds says euro-area inflation is unlikely to rise sharply further. May inflation was driven by fuel, and fuel prices should retreat in the near term; if oil and gas shipments via the Strait of Hormuz resume in coming months, energy inflation is unlikely to increase, reducing risk of second‑round effects. Food and service inflation may accelerate in H2 but is expected to have only a small impact, so overall H2 inflation should rise only modestly.