Capital Economics economist Jack Allen-Reynolds says euro-area inflation is
unlikely to rise sharply further. May inflation was driven by fuel, and fuel
prices should retreat in the near term; if oil and gas shipments via the Strait
of Hormuz resumes in coming months, energy inflation is unlikely to increase,
reducing risk of second‑round effects. Food and service inflation may accelerate
in H2 but is expected to have only a small impact, so overall H2 inflation
should rise only modestly.
