Economics professor Phil Powell said he expects the Fed to hold rates at this meeting. He said markets had feared higher inf prior to a Washington‑Tehran peace deal after oil surged and inf topped 4%, making a near‑term Fed hike more likely than a cut. Powell added an Iran peace agreement would be a sizeable disinflationary shock—oil could fall more than expected and lower the odds of near‑term hikes. He noted this was the first rate decision under the new Fed chair; while markets may view the n

Economics professor Phil Powell said he expects the Fed to hold rates at this meeting. He said markets had feared higher inf prior to a Washington‑Tehran peace deal after oil surged and inf topped 4%, making a near‑term Fed hike more likely than a cut. Powell added an Iran peace agreement would be a sizeable disinflationary shock—oil could fall more than expected and lower the odds of near‑term hikes. He noted this was the first rate decision under the new Fed chair; while markets may view the new chair as more cut‑friendly than his predecessor, Powell said that has not proven true. On cuts, he said rate reductions are unlikely before year‑end because inf must fall first.