Economics professor Phil Powell said he expects the Fed to hold rates at this
meeting. He said markets had feared higher inf prior to a Washington‑Tehran
peace deal after oil surged and inf topped 4%, making a near‑term Fed hike more
likely than a cut. Powell added an Iran peace agreement would be a sizeable
disinflationary shock—oil could fall more than expected and lower the odds of
near‑term hikes. He noted this was the first rate decision under the new Fed
chair; while markets may view the new chair as more cut‑friendly than his
predecessor, Powell said that has not proven true. On cuts, he said rate
reductions are unlikely before year‑end because inf must fall first.
