Oraclum Capital CIO Vuk Vukovic says the market’s immediate focus is political risk rather than inflation or rates. He notes the new Fed chair took office amid accelerating inflation—CPI 4.2%, PPI 6.5%—which constrains the Fed’s room to deliver any previously promised rate cuts. Recent easing in geopolitical tensions, notably a thaw in US‑Iran pressures that has pushed oil prices lower, gives the chair breathing room. Vukovic does not expect hawkish signals at this meeting and judges a dovish op

Oraclum Capital CIO Vuk Vukovic says the market’s immediate focus is political risk rather than inflation or rates. He notes the new Fed chair took office amid accelerating inflation—CPI 4.2%, PPI 6.5%—which constrains the Fed’s room to deliver any previously promised rate cuts. Recent easing in geopolitical tensions, notably a thaw in US‑Iran pressures that has pushed oil prices lower, gives the chair breathing room. Vukovic does not expect hawkish signals at this meeting and judges a dovish opening is the most likely path. If the chair abandons rigid forward guidance, markets will shift to other signal sources—trade, foreign policy and fiscal measures will gain weight. Whether that communication approach succeeds will be the new chair’s first major test.