Macquarie cuts its year-end spot gold target to $4,300 from $4,400 and says inflation trends and central bank policy — especially a hawkish Fed — are the key price drivers. The apparent end to the Middle East conflict and a firmer Fed stance have pressured gold; Macquarie notes the Fed’s new chair Wash set a hawkish tone at his first meeting and that the central bank has the capacity to push or suppress gold prices. The bank expects the Middle East shock to weigh on Q3 global growth, but a subse

Macquarie cuts its year-end spot gold target to $4,300 from $4,400 and says inflation trends and central bank policy — especially a hawkish Fed — are the key price drivers. The apparent end to the Middle East conflict and a firmer Fed stance have pressured gold; Macquarie notes the Fed’s new chair Wash set a hawkish tone at his first meeting and that the central bank has the capacity to push or suppress gold prices. The bank expects the Middle East shock to weigh on Q3 global growth, but a subsequent growth rebound and the start of an easing cycle should drive money out of precious metals and lower gold. Investors have been taking profits and rotating into equities, leaving room for later gold re-entry only if a major macro shock occurs. Forecasts: 2026 average spot $4,641 (+35% YoY); 2027 average $4,200 (‑9.5%). Macquarie expects gold to decline year‑by‑year from next year through 2030.