Macquarie cuts its year-end spot gold target to $4,300 from $4,400 and says
inflation trends and central bank policy — especially a hawkish Fed — are the
key price drivers. The apparent end to the Middle East conflict and a firmer Fed
stance have pressured gold; Macquarie notes the Fed’s new chair Wash set a
hawkish tone at his first meeting and that the central bank has the capacity to
push or suppress gold prices. The bank expects the Middle East shock to weigh on
Q3 global growth, but a subsequent growth rebound and the start of an easing
cycle should drive money out of precious metals and lower gold. Investors have
been taking profits and rotating into equities, leaving room for later gold
re-entry only if a major macro shock occurs. Forecasts: 2026 average spot $4,641
(+35% YoY); 2027 average $4,200 (‑9.5%). Macquarie expects gold to decline
year‑by‑year from next year through 2030.
