Brent jumped above $86/bl as US–Iran tensions escalated after Trump reimposed a blockade on Iranian vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz and demanded transit fees, reviving inflation concerns. Markets have raised tightening bets: money markets now fully price a 25bp Bank of England hike in Sep and another 25bp by year-end, and price a 25bp European Central Bank Sep move with an additional year-end increase seen as almost certain. Markets also expect the Federal Reserve to hike in Sep; the pro

Brent jumped above $86/bl as US–Iran tensions escalated after Trump reimposed a blockade on Iranian vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz and demanded transit fees, reviving inflation concerns. Markets have raised tightening bets: money markets now fully price a 25bp Bank of England hike in Sep and another 25bp by year-end, and price a 25bp European Central Bank Sep move with an additional year-end increase seen as almost certain. Markets also expect the Federal Reserve to hike in Sep; the probability of an earlier in‑month move is near 50%. Earlier this month markets had priced cumulative tightening through next year at under 25bp.