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Brent jumped above $86/bl as US–Iran tensions escalated after Trump reimposed a blockade on Iranian vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz and demanded transit fees, reviving inflation concerns. Markets have raised tightening bets: money markets now

2026-07-14

Brent jumped above $86/bl as US–Iran tensions escalated after Trump reimposed a blockade on Iranian vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz and demanded transit fees, reviving inflation concerns. Markets have raised tightening bets: money markets now fully price a 25bp Bank of England hike in Sep and another 25bp by year-end, and price a 25bp European Central Bank Sep move with an additional year-end increase seen as almost certain. Markets also expect the Federal Reserve to hike in Sep; the probability of an earlier in‑month move is near 50%. Earlier this month markets had cumulative tightening through next year at under 25bp.

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2026-07-14

China's trade balance in June was $125.62 billion, compared with an expected $120.6 billion and a previous value of $105.43 billion.

China's trade balance in June was $125.62 billion, compared with an expected $120.6 billion and a previous value of $105.43 billion.
2026-07-13

US President Trump: We may “operate” the Strait of Hormuz in the future, and if the US takes the lead in the Strait of Hormuz in the future, the US will receive compensation.

US President Trump: We may “operate” the Strait of Hormuz in the future, and if the US takes the lead in the Strait of Hormuz in the future, the US will receive compensation.
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