7 月 10 日至 12 日期间，经过霍尔木兹海峡的船只数量同比减少了约 52%。各艘船只重新采取了更为谨慎的航行路线。与此同时，通过伊朗和“暗道”的船只数量有所增加，而通过国际海事组织指定的航线以及阿曼海域的船只活动则几乎完全停止了。虽然自 6 月 27 日以来，没有再发生任何经国际海事组织确认的袭击事件，但美伊之间的紧张关系以及伊朗革命卫队的警告，仍然让商业航运界保持高度警惕。

Barclays analysts said rising oil prices — after US strikes on Iranian targets and Iranian attacks on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz at the weekend — could prompt Bank of England MPC members to signal a bias toward rate hikes in coming months. They warned escalating Middle East tensions and this week’s oil gains raise the risk of stronger inflationary pressure, a focus for MPC members. LSEG data shows markets have fully priced a 25bp hike in 2026 and assign a 28% probability of an additional 25bp by year-end.

Analyst Joel South urges buying ASML ahead of the July 15 US open as the company reports Q2 pre-market and is highly likely to reiterate its raised 2026 guidance, a move he says markets are underpricing. Catalysts: management raised 2026 revenue guidance to €36–40bn and CFO called 2026 a very strong year; Q1 EPS $8.43, revenue $10.34bn, gross margin 53% at the top of guidance; Q2 revenue guide €8.4–9.0bn. Demand: CEO says supply will not meet foreseeable demand and memory customers’ 2026 capacity is fully sold out; 2025 year-end backlog $45.06bn, Q4 new orders $15.28bn. Capital returns: €12bn buyback launched Jan 2026 through 2028, 2025 dividend +17% to €7.50/sh, 2025 free cash flow $12.81bn.