Roscosmos said Soyuz MS-29 launched from Kazakhstan’s Baikonur Cosmodrome on a Soyuz-2.1a rocket on 14th at 17:48 Moscow time (22:48 Beijing time), carrying three crew to the International Space Station. The spacecraft reached its planned orbit and docked with the Russian segment’s docking node at 20:52 Moscow time (01:52 Beijing time on 15th).

June inflation undershot expectations; CME's FedWatch shows probability of a Fed July rate hike fell to 17% from 42% yesterday. June CPI was -0.4% MoM and +3.5% YoY, indicating softer price trends than economists had forecast. Even excluding last month's sharp oil-price drop, inflation still came in better than expected. Spartan's Peter Cardillo said the print exceeded expectations and has sharply reduced, though not eliminated, the chance of a July hike. FedWatch still implies markets expect at least one rate hike this year.

ING says the BOC faces a high bar to adopt a materially hawkish stance and no surprises are expected at tonight's meeting. Unless oil rebounds to April–May levels, inflation looks too mild to warrant a rate hike, especially given downside employment and activity risks from USMCA uncertainty. ING added that the BOC’s recent hawkish tilt and higher oil have supported the CAD short term, but USMCA-related risk premiums should rise into Q3; ING expects USD/CAD to remain above 1.40 in the coming months.