ICE data: For the week to July 14, speculative net long positions in Brent crude rose by 114,752 contracts to 169,839; speculative net longs in diesel increased by 2,389 contracts to 71,875.

Japan's finance minister Katayama said she will not comment on the exact wording of the forthcoming economic blueprint, which is currently being finalized with the ruling coalition.

US strikes against Iran have increasingly hit civilian infrastructure — bridges, water-treatment facilities and grain stores — prompting analysts to warn of heightened oil and shipping risk and a broader shift in US targeting. King's College senior lecturer Mark Hilborne says many struck sites are dual-use but clearly affect civilians; he highlights bridges as key to southern military logistics and to Iran's ability to move equipment and threaten shipping. Hilborne adds a northeast bridge struck earlier sits on a strategic trade corridor used for economic traffic and alleged weapons-part shipments. Attacks have concentrated on Bandar Abbas, home to Iran's conventional navy and the IRGC naval base overlooking the Strait of Hormuz; more than 90% of Iran's oil exports transit the strait, making Bandar Abbas both a military and economic choke point. London military analyst Alex Alfirraz Scheers says expanding strikes beyond conventional military targets may signal a wider strategic shift — aimed at enforcing a maritime blockade, degrading military logistics and pressuring Iran to negotiate — and could represent early steps toward preparing limited ground operations. Lancaster University professor Simon Mabon cautions the pattern could be interpreted as a precursor to ground intervention but calls a full-scale invasion unlikely and warns attacks on civilian infrastructure may strengthen Tehran's domestic narrative and raise the risk of further escalation. Market takeaway: strikes widening to infrastructure in southern Iran and at Bandar Abbas raise the risk premium on crude flows and regional shipping security, warranting close monitoring for disruption to exports and any signs of further escalation.