ECB executive board member SIMKUS said inflation risks are skewed to the upside and current conditions are highly supportive of inflation. While second‑round effects have not yet emerged, inflation is likely to remain above target for a prolonged period and will require policy response. Oil returned to $100/bbl yesterday, which will feed into inflation. Given high uncertainty, the ECB is more likely to raise rates than to keep them unchanged.

2026-07-24

ECB executive board member SIMKUS said inflation risks are skewed to the upside and current conditions are highly supportive of inflation. While second‑round effects have not yet emerged, inflation is likely to remain above target for a prolonged period and will require policy response. Oil returned to $100/bbl yesterday, which will feed into inflation. Given high uncertainty, the ECB is more likely to raise rates than to keep them unchanged.