ECB executive board member SIMKUS inflation said risks are skewed to the upside
and current conditions are highly supportive of inflation. While second‑round
effects have not yet emerged, inflation is likely to remain above target for a
prolonged period and will require policy response. Oil returned to $100/bbl
yesterday, which will feed into inflation. Given high uncertainty, the ECB is
more likely to raise rates than to keep them unchanged.
