China front-month fuel oil contract fell 8.00% intraday to 3,609.00 yuan/ton.

Danske Bank senior analyst Joel Rossier said in a note that with Fed chair KEVIN WARSH not expected to release new economic projections or forward guidance at Wednesday’s meeting, market attention will shift to voting splits within the policy committee. "We think the most likely outcome is 2–4 members supporting a rate hike, but that would not be enough to carry a hike," he said. Danske expects 25bp hikes in December and March next year, though risks are skewed toward an earlier move. Money markets currently price roughly 8bp of tightening—implying about a 31.5% probability of a 25bp hike—but still expect the Fed to keep rates unchanged at this week’s meeting.

Last month Washington and Tehran signed a 14-point memorandum including a ceasefire, which briefly halted European fuel-price rises. Eurostat shows June diesel fell 6.4% MoM and gasoline fell 4.2% MoM versus May. Renewed tensions and fresh supply disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz, with no resolution visible, have pushed prices higher; global crude topped $100/bbl last week, the strongest level since early June. YoY fuel-price moves were largest in Bulgaria, Lithuania and Romania, each up more than 23%. Hungary maintains a fuel-price cap; Spain and Poland cut VAT on gasoline and diesel to blunt increases—Brussels has pushed for excise-duty cuts instead. Spain’s large downstream refining network limits its dependence on imported finished fuels despite heavy crude import reliance.