【期货热点追踪】玉米、大豆优良率双双降至2023年以来最低，当前天气溢价是否已被充分定价？8月天气对大豆单产前景更为关键！

US Dallas Fed New Orders Index (July) 6.4, prior 2.3.

Last month Washington and Tehran signed a 14-point memorandum including a ceasefire, which briefly halted European fuel-price rises. Eurostat shows June diesel fell 6.4% MoM and gasoline fell 4.2% MoM versus May. Renewed tensions and fresh supply disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz, with no resolution visible, have pushed prices higher; global crude topped $100/bbl last week, the strongest level since early June. YoY fuel-price moves were largest in Bulgaria, Lithuania and Romania, each up more than 23%. Hungary maintains a fuel-price cap; Spain and Poland cut VAT on gasoline and diesel to blunt increases—Brussels has pushed for excise-duty cuts instead. Spain’s large downstream refining network limits its dependence on imported finished fuels despite heavy crude import reliance.