On the eve of the Fed's rate decision, spot gold eased to about $4,020/oz in early trade, extending the prior session's decline. Fed swaps imply roughly a one-third probability of a 25bp hike, an unusually high level of near-term uncertainty. Policymakers may be caught between softer-than-expected June inflation and renewed US-Iran hostilities this month that have pushed oil prices higher; since the US-Iran conflict began five months ago, gold has fallen nearly 25%. Dip buying has kept prices an

Sources told Refinitiv that Yemen’s Houthi movement is considering levying fees on commercial vessels transiting the southern Red Sea. The group, which on July 20 announced a maritime blockade on Saudi Arabia, has expanded attacks beyond the Gulf to include tankers carrying global energy and other goods. Sources said it is studying fees on most ships passing the Bab al‑Mandeb Strait but has not set an implementation date; the Houthi media office did not respond. Sources added the move aims to normalize levy practices on international waterways and increase pressure on the United States.

【国债期货早盘开盘】2年期国债期货（TS）主力合约持平，5年期国债期货（TF）主力合约持平，10年期国债期货（T）主力合约持平，30年期国债期货（TL）主力合约涨0.04%。