On the eve of the Fed's rate decision, spot gold eased to about $4,020/oz in early trade, extending the prior session's decline. Fed swaps imply roughly a one-third probability of a 25bp hike, an unusually high level of near-term uncertainty. Policymakers may be caught between softer-than-expected June inflation and renewed US-Iran hostilities this month that have pushed oil prices higher; since the US-Iran conflict began five months ago, gold has fallen nearly 25%. Dip buying has kept prices an

On the eve of the Fed's rate decision, spot gold eased to about $4,020/oz in early trade, extending the prior session's decline. Fed swaps imply roughly a one-third probability of a 25bp hike, an unusually high level of near-term uncertainty. Policymakers may be caught between softer-than-expected June inflation and renewed US-Iran hostilities this month that have pushed oil prices higher; since the US-Iran conflict began five months ago, gold has fallen nearly 25%. Dip buying has kept prices anchored near the $4,000/oz support level since late June.