Goldman Sachs says interest-rate futures currently price roughly a one-third probability of a Fed hike today, meaning any Fed decision would be the largest non-cut meeting “surprise” since 1997. Goldman adds that a hike would be the biggest day-of-meeting surprise, excluding cuts, since the Fed began issuing statements announcing policy-rate changes.

CME plans to introduce futures tied to sports events, extending the event-contract model it and FanDuel used for equity-index, commodity, crypto and economic products such as GDP and CPI. Those event contracts have recorded cumulative volume of about 100 million contracts since their Dec 2025 launch, indicating scale and a strategic push into new retail derivatives. The FutureSports product will convert professional and college sports data into standardized indices aimed at teams, sponsors, broadcasters, insurers and asset managers; CME’s stated aims are to shift sports pricing toward regulated price discovery and risk management and to attract retail users who do not currently trade futures. If approved, sports-linked trading could become a new growth channel for prediction markets and futures exchanges and pressure traditional sports-betting platforms, but regulators are likely to challenge whether the contracts amount to repackaged gambling. CME CEO Duffy has said clearer rules are needed to separate risk management and event trading from binary betting.

Masco Corp shares fell 11.5% in premarket trading after Q2 sales missed expectations.