Goldman Sachs says interest-rate futures currently price roughly a one-third probability of a Fed hike today, meaning any Fed decision would be the largest non-cut meeting “surprise” since 1997. Goldman adds that a hike would be the biggest day-of-meeting surprise, excluding cuts, since the Fed began issuing statements announcing policy-rate changes.

2026-07-29

Goldman Sachs says interest-rate futures currently price roughly a one-third probability of a Fed hike today, meaning any Fed decision would be the largest non-cut meeting “surprise” since 1997. Goldman adds that a hike would be the biggest day-of-meeting surprise, excluding cuts, since the Fed began issuing statements announcing policy-rate changes.