Ebury analyst Matthew Ryan says markets expect the Bank of England to hold rates
on Thursday, but the vote split will determine sterling’s reaction. A 7-2 split
(two voters for a hike), coupled with rhetoric that downplays energy-driven
inflation spikes, would likely cool tightening expectations and weigh on the
pound. Conversely, a 6-3 split, accompanied by projections implying inflation
may peak nearer 4% rather than 3%, would support sterling and lift front-end
yields.
