Berenberg analyst Andrew Wishart says the Bank of England is likely to keep its policy rate at 3.75% on Thursday but may warn that a rate rise remains possible if energy prices surge or second‑round inflation effects appear. He stresses such a warning does not imply a high probability of a hike, though the threat combined with rising oil could lift rate expectations and mortgage borrowing costs, reducing inflationary pressure. Berenberg expects the Bank to resume cutting in December and to lower

Berenberg analyst Andrew Wishart says the Bank of England is likely to keep its policy rate at 3.75% on Thursday but may warn that a rate rise remains possible if energy prices surge or second‑round inflation effects appear. He stresses such a warning does not imply a high probability of a hike, though the threat combined with rising oil could lift rate expectations and mortgage borrowing costs, reducing inflationary pressure. Berenberg expects the Bank to resume cutting in December and to lower the policy rate to about 3.0% by mid‑2027. Wishart notes wages and services inflation are trending down and that U.S. President Trump will have an incentive to avoid oil‑price spikes ahead of the midterms.