Berenberg analyst Andrew Wishart says the Bank of England is likely to keep its
policy rate at 3.75% on Thursday but may warn that a rate rise remains possible
if energy prices surge or second‑round inflation effects appear. He stresses
such a warning does not imply a high probability of a hike, though the threat
combined with rising oil could lift rate expectations and mortgage borrowing
costs, reducing inflationary pressure. Berenberg expects the Bank to resume
cutting in December and to lower the policy rate to about 3.0% by mid-2027.
Wishart notes wages and services inflation are trending down and that U.S.
President Trump will have an incentive to avoid oil‑price spikes ahead of the
midterms.
