The Fed's preferred inflation gauge, the PCE price index, fell 0.1% MoM in June — the first monthly decline since 2020 — supporting the Fed's decision this week to hold rates unchanged. Headline PCE slowed to 3.7% YoY from 4.1%. Core PCE (excluding energy) rose 0.1% MoM, below expectations, and eased to 3.3% YoY from 3.4%. The June cooling was driven mainly by lower oil after a fragile US‑Iran temporary ceasefire opened space for peace talks. It remains unclear whether inflation will continue to

The Fed's preferred inflation gauge, the PCE price index, fell 0.1% MoM in June — the first monthly decline since 2020 — supporting the Fed's decision this week to hold rates unchanged. Headline PCE slowed to 3.7% YoY from 4.1%. Core PCE (excluding energy) rose 0.1% MoM, below expectations, and eased to 3.3% YoY from 3.4%. The June cooling was driven mainly by lower oil after a fragile US‑Iran temporary ceasefire opened space for peace talks. It remains unclear whether inflation will continue to retreat. The PCE gauge has stayed above the Fed's 2% target for the sixth consecutive year.