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The Fed's preferred inflation gauge, the PCE price index, fell 0.1% MoM in June — the first monthly decline since 2020 — supporting the Fed's decision this week to hold rates unchanged. Headline PCE slowed to 3.7% YoY from 4.1%. Core PCE (excluding e

2026-07-30

The Fed's preferred inflation gauge, the PCE price index, fell 0.1% MoM in June — the first monthly decline since 2020 — supporting the Fed's decision this week to hold rates unchanged. Headline PCE slowed to 3.7% YoY from 4.1%. Core PCE (excluding energy) rose 0.1% MoM, below expectations, and eased to 3.3% YoY from 3.4%. The June cooling was driven mainly by lower oil after a fragile US‑Iran temporarily ceasefire opened space for peace talks. It remains unclear whether inflation will continue to retreat. The PCE gauge has stayed above the Fed's 2% target for the sixth consecutive year.

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2026-07-30

Italy Q2 preliminary GDP QoQ +0.2% vs +0.1% expected; prior +0.3%.

Italy Q2 preliminary GDP QoQ +0.2% vs +0.1% expected; prior +0.3%.
2026-07-30

CITIC Securities says incremental takeaways from Fed chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference were: the Fed has no soft inflation target, will not react to shocks, will consult an inflation task force in coming weeks and “will not hesitate to act if nece

CITIC Securities says incremental takeaways from Fed chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference were: the Fed has no soft inflation target, will not react to shocks, will consult an inflation task force in coming weeks and “will not hesitate to act if necessary and conditions are appropriate." Warsh also said recent rises in long‑term yields and a spontaneous tightening of financial conditions provide the Fed with “some comfort.” His tone was procedural—avoiding overtly hawkish signals while leaving room to tighten. With the Middle East conflict unresolved, CITIC judges the post‑decision rise in long‑end US yields and US equity weakness chiefly reflects concern that Trump will “teach Iran a lesson.” While September hike pricing is understandable given a sharp oil rally, CITIC argues repeated rounds of signaling should have clarified intentions and red lines on both sides; assuming oil spikes are temporary and the price baseline only edges up, it maintains a view the Fed will hold rates through the year and is more dovish than market consensus.
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