美国财长贝森特：如果对日本政策没有信心，美国就不会参与。

China Merchants Securities review of nine major A‑share drawdowns since 2015 finds sharp falls usually triggered by external shocks or liquidity stress; stabilization has historically been marked by policy response. Post‑adjustment mean rebound window is 34 trading days; Wind All‑A average bounce exceeds 19%, with larger prior declines tending to produce bigger recoveries. Sector rotation is two‑phased: first 10 trading days led by high‑beta, oversold names (electronics, computers/TMT); between 20–60 trading days the market reverts to earnings‑supported leaders (power equipment, food & beverage). Recommended two‑step positioning for the current leg: early allocation to oversold, high‑elasticity TMT (priority on onshore and offshore compute‑capacity leaders); after ~10–20 trading days shift toward earnings/rebalancing exposure — focus on power equipment, specialty pharmaceuticals/chemicals, coal and non‑bank financials. Tradeable themes: beneficiaries of rising overseas compute pricing, domestic compute hardware elasticity, and gold for hedge/rebalancing. Overall portfolio framework: technology innovation, corporates expanding abroad, and rebalancing into undervalued traditional sectors.

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