China July CPI MoM -0.1% vs. expected +0.2%; June -0.3%.

Refinitiv survey: economists expect US July headline CPI 3.4% YoY (June 3.5%); core CPI 2.5% YoY (June 2.6%). Citi economists say two consecutive months of softer inflation readings would effectively rule out a September rate hike. Citi nonetheless expects core services inflation to tick up 0.3% MoM in July after being flat in May–June. BofA analysts say a rebound in core services could keep a September hike on the table. BofA analyst Kate Duguid adds that if the latter view wins and inflation prints below expectations, a Fed hike could be delayed to December or later.

Bank of Japan July meeting summary: a member said rising oil prices passing through to consumer inflation, strong global AI-driven demand and Japan’s expansionary fiscal policy boosting demand present substantial upside risks to the inflation outlook.