Refinitiv survey: economists expect US July headline CPI 3.4% YoY (June 3.5%); core CPI 2.5% YoY (June 2.6%). Citi economists say two consecutive months of softer inflation readings would effectively rule out a September rate hike. Citi nonetheless expects core services inflation to tick up 0.3% MoM in July after being flat in May–June. BofA analysts say a rebound in core services could keep a September hike on the table. BofA analyst Kate Duguid adds that if the latter view wins and inflation p

Refinitiv survey: economists expect US July headline CPI 3.4% YoY (June 3.5%); core CPI 2.5% YoY (June 2.6%). Citi economists say two consecutive months of softer inflation readings would effectively rule out a September rate hike. Citi nonetheless expects core services inflation to tick up 0.3% MoM in July after being flat in May–June. BofA analysts say a rebound in core services could keep a September hike on the table. BofA analyst Kate Duguid adds that if the latter view wins and inflation prints below expectations, a Fed hike could be delayed to December or later.