Refinitiv survey: economists expect US July headline CPI 3.4% YoY (June 3.5%);
core CPI 2.5% YoY (June 2.6%). Citi economists say two consecutive months of
softer inflation readings would effectively rule out a September rate hike. Citi
nevertheless expects core services inflation to tick up 0.3% MoM in July after
being flat in May–June. BofA analysts say a rebound in core services could keep
a September hike on the table. BofA analyst Kate Duguid adds that if the latter
view wins and inflation prints below expectations, a Fed hike could be delayed
to December or later.
