Morgan Stanley cut its target price for Pop Mart (09992.HK) to HK$214 from
HK$247, a 13% reduction, citing high base pressures in H2 and a sharp slowdown
in overseas sales. The bank says limited new information and high-frequency
indicators of weaker overseas demand have left investors broadly bearish ahead
of results; retail shareholders' elevated expectations and large ownership are
flagged as the primary downside risk. Morgan Stanley forecasts H1 sales +29% YoY
and net profit +18% to RMB 5.4 bln, expects management to guide H2 sales above
H1 while remaining cautious on YoY outlook. It keeps an Overweight rating,
projecting a 13% EPS CAGR for 2026-28 driven by a reacceleration in overseas
sales and expects total sales to resume growth in 2027.