JP Morgan says the U.S.-Iran situation held steady this week, lowering the probability the Strait of Hormuz will return to normal before year-end to roughly 30%. The bank notes the U.S. is inclined toward an "unprecedented" campaign of economic pressure, while Iran's short-term interests and incentives for action may not align. Monitor refined-product crack spreads (gasoline/diesel prices minus crude costs), a proxy for refinery margins and product tightness, for signals that Hormuz conditions a

UK seasonally adjusted core retail sales YoY 2.3% in July vs. expected 3.3%; June revised down to 5.0% from 5.4%.

Goldman One Delta head Rich Privorotsky said AI and momentum trades swung sharply over the past 48 hours; Goldman’s GSPUMOMO momentum portfolio has fallen nearly 7%. Goldman Prime data show the move in positions has been much milder: momentum exposure is close to neutral and recent increases are chiefly in net exposure rather than gross leverage. That is material after a sizeable July de‑risking—investors still hold meaningful AI and semiconductors exposure but remain well below prior position peaks. Semiconductor internal leverage has already fallen, though residual system leverage could trigger passive de‑risking and forced selling if prices drop quickly. Lower market liquidity in August may further amplify AI swings; intraday price action looks “fundamental” but may overstate underlying fundamental change. Watch total leverage, Prime positions and semiconductor fund flows to judge whether this volatility will broaden into wider de‑risking.