JP Morgan says the U.S.-Iran situation held steady this week, lowering the probability the Strait of Hormuz will return to normal before year-end to roughly 30%. The bank notes the U.S. is inclined toward an "unprecedented" campaign of economic pressure, while Iran's short-term interests and incentives for action may not align. Monitor refined-product crack spreads (gasoline/diesel prices minus crude costs), a proxy for refinery margins and product tightness, for signals that Hormuz conditions a

JP Morgan says the U.S.-Iran situation held steady this week, lowering the probability the Strait of Hormuz will return to normal before year-end to roughly 30%. The bank notes the U.S. is inclined toward an "unprecedented" campaign of economic pressure, while Iran's short-term interests and incentives for action may not align. Monitor refined-product crack spreads (gasoline/diesel prices minus crude costs), a proxy for refinery margins and product tightness, for signals that Hormuz conditions are materially normalizing or deteriorating.