Analyst Trita Parsi says the US now judges it has shifted the strategic balance
with Iran: shipping rerouted via the Oman corridor and weaker global demand for
Persian Gulf oil have reduced the impact of a Strait of Hormuz closure, while a
US maritime blockade has sharply constrained Iran’s oil exports. Washington’s
assessment is that the costs imposed on Iran now exceed US costs and, for the
first time since hostilities began, US policymakers believe time is on their
side. If that assessment is correct, the critical question is how Trump deploys
the newfound leverage. Treating Iran’s weakened position as a means to force
unconditional surrender rather than pursue a negotiated settlement would raise
the likelihood of a new round of war, since Iran has historically preferred
escalation to capitulation. Diplomacy, Parsi argues, is the only reliable way to
convert current leverage into a durable political outcome; US policymakers risk
repeating past mistakes by equating leverage with victory.
