Options traders price an implied post-Q2 move for NVIDIA (NVDA.O) of ±5.4% for
Thursday trading after Wednesday's after-hours results, down from the ~6.5%
implied before May's report. At ±5.4% NVIDIA's market cap would swing roughly
$280bn. ORATS data show the 5.4% figure is below the 12-quarter post-earnings
average of 7.4%. ORATS founder Matt Amberson said the market has grown somewhat
complacent and NVIDIA’s results have become more predictable. Susquehanna
derivatives co-head Chris Murphy said the era of repeated, outsized earnings
shocks—10–20% moves driven by large AI-era beats—has, to some extent, passed and
the market does not broadly expect another large surprise.