Swedbank says the Strait of Hormuz is nominally open but commercial traffic is near standstill: on Aug. 25 only five bulk commodity vessels transited versus a 10‑day average of 15, and vessels operating with AIS switched off ('dark ships') mean public data understate actual flows. Oil prices have not experienced the initially feared runaway spike because strategic releases, demand contraction and alternative supply have absorbed the shock — the U.S. and other economies tapped strategic reserves

Swedbank says the Strait of Hormuz is nominally open but commercial traffic is near standstill: on Aug. 25 only five bulk commodity vessels transited versus a 10‑day average of 15, and vessels operating with AIS switched off ('dark ships') mean public data understate actual flows. Oil prices have not experienced the initially feared runaway spike because strategic releases, demand contraction and alternative supply have absorbed the shock — the U.S. and other economies tapped strategic reserves while Saudi Arabia and the UAE rerouted flows via pipelines and offshore transshipment. That resilience is eroding buffers: IEA data show observable global stocks fell sharply from March–May, and the U.S. SPR has dropped from about 415 mln barrels at the start of the war to 289.7 mln barrels, the lowest since 1982. Tightness has shifted from crude to middle distillates as some Middle East refineries remain offline, Russia restricts diesel exports, and the U.S. diesel crack briefly exceeded $100/bbl in August.