Swedbank says the Strait of Hormuz is nominally open but commercial traffic is
near standstill: on Aug. 25 only five bulk commodity vessels transited versus a
10‑day average of 15, and vessels operating with AIS switched off ('dark ships')
mean public data understate actual flows. Oil prices have not experienced the
initially feared runaway spike because strategic releases, demand contraction
and alternative supply have absorbed the shock — the U.S. and other economies
tapped strategic reserves while Saudi Arabia and the UAE rerouted flows via
pipelines and offshore transshipment. That resilience is eroding buffers: IEA
data show observable global stocks fell sharply from March–May, and the U.S. SPR
has dropped from about 415 mln barrels at the start of the war to 289.7 mln
barrels, the lowest since 1982. Tightness has shifted from crude to middle
distillates as some Middle East refineries remain offline, Russia restrictions
diesel exports, and the U.S. diesel crack briefly exceeded $100/bbl in August.
