夜盘开盘，国内期货主力合约涨多跌少，低硫燃料油（LU）、SC原油涨超2%，合成橡胶、焦炭、丙烯、燃料油、焦煤涨超1%，豆粕涨近1%。跌幅方面，沪锌、不锈钢（SS）小幅下跌。

Mizuho analyst Vijay Rakesh said a Q2 earnings beat for NVIDIA (NVDA.O) is largely priced in and the market will focus on guidance for AI capital spending and next‑year AI revenue. He models adjusted EPS of $2.08 and revenue of $92.0 bln but expects actuals to be materially higher, and he retains an Outperform rating with a $300 PT. Rakesh called Wall Street's $550 bln next‑year AI revenue estimate conservative, saying NVIDIA's recent financing with a Wall Street consortium and SpaceX's plan for an ~10 GW solar plant in Austin could together add an incremental $400–500 bln of AI revenue.

Swedbank says the Strait of Hormuz is nominally open but commercial traffic is near standstill: on Aug. 25 only five bulk commodity vessels transited versus a 10‑day average of 15, and vessels operating with AIS switched off ('dark ships') mean public data understate actual flows. Oil prices have not experienced the initially feared runaway spike because strategic releases, demand contraction and alternative supply have absorbed the shock — the U.S. and other economies tapped strategic reserves while Saudi Arabia and the UAE rerouted flows via pipelines and offshore transshipment. That resilience is eroding buffers: IEA data show observable global stocks fell sharply from March–May, and the U.S. SPR has dropped from about 415 mln barrels at the start of the war to 289.7 mln barrels, the lowest since 1982. Tightness has shifted from crude to middle distillates as some Middle East refineries remain offline, Russia restricts diesel exports, and the U.S. diesel crack briefly exceeded $100/bbl in August.