MORGAN STANLEY chief US economist Michael Gapen and global head of macro
strategy Matthew Hornbach say do not expect Waller to give substantive
short-term rate guidance at Jackson Hole, citing his prior calls for the Fed to
reduce communications and forward guidance. They judge Waller unlikely to focus
on September policy choices, December rate levels, whether the Fed will hike or
cut later this year, or near-term balance-sheet moves. Instead he may use the
platform to address longer-term topics tied to working groups he created: the
Fed balance sheet, the inflation framework, Fed communications, AI and
productivity, and US economic-data quality. MORGAN STANLEY's core read: this is
more likely a speech outlining the direction Waller wants to take the Fed than
one resolving near-term policy timing.
