MORGAN STANLEY chief US economist Michael Gapen and global head of macro strategy Matthew Hornbach say do not expect Waller to give substantive short-term rate guidance at Jackson Hole, citing his prior calls for the Fed to reduce communications and forward guidance. They judge Waller unlikely to focus on September policy choices, December rate levels, whether the Fed will hike or cut later this year, or near-term balance-sheet moves. Instead he may use the platform to address longer-term topics

MORGAN STANLEY chief US economist Michael Gapen and global head of macro strategy Matthew Hornbach say do not expect Waller to give substantive short-term rate guidance at Jackson Hole, citing his prior calls for the Fed to reduce communications and forward guidance. They judge Waller unlikely to focus on September policy choices, December rate levels, whether the Fed will hike or cut later this year, or near-term balance-sheet moves. Instead he may use the platform to address longer-term topics tied to working groups he created: the Fed balance sheet, the inflation framework, Fed communications, AI and productivity, and US economic-data quality. MORGAN STANLEY's core read: this is more likely a speech outlining the direction Waller wants to take the Fed than one resolving near-term policy timing.