South Korea July industrial production YoY 3.6% (consensus 4.4%; June 5.8%).

CNN analyst Brett McGurk says the six‑month conflict has moved into a fourth phase and Iran’s leverage over the Strait of Hormuz is at risk of failing. Since mid‑July the US has re‑imposed sanctions on Iranian oil, re‑established a maritime blockade of Iranian ports and stepped up naval escorts to clear and protect commercial traffic; Bloomberg reports flows through the Strait have recovered to about two‑thirds of pre‑conflict levels. Attempts by Iran to interdict shipping with drones and sea mines have begun to lose effectiveness, leaving Iranian oil exports effectively constrained and pressure accumulating on Tehran rather than Washington. McGurk notes Iran could try to push prices higher to force concessions—particularly ahead of US midterms—but Gulf states do not back Iran’s claims to control the Strait. With the war entering a new phase, US objectives—sustain the blockade, secure commercial navigation and press Iran to abandon claims over the Strait and nuclear enrichment—are clearer and the situation is starting to favor Washington.

1. 上海航运交易所数据显示，截至8月28日，上海出口集装箱运价指数（综合指数）SCFI报3509.54点，与上期相比上涨99.91点。 2. 当地时间8月29日，厄瓜多尔政府宣布全国进入红色警戒状态，以应对厄尔尼诺现象可能带来的影响。 3. 中国煤炭运销协会数据显示，截至8月20日，重点监测30家焦煤企业库存142万吨，比去年同期减少31万吨、下降18%。 4. 山西焦煤在业绩说明会表示，停产矿井对产量影响有限。目前，公司矿井基本全部恢复正常生产。 5. 据行业估计，由于未来数月预计将出现严重的厄尔尼诺天气，印尼明年棕榈油产量可能减少多达300万吨，进一步加大价格上涨压力。 6. 截至8月28日当周，自繁自养生猪养殖利润为亏损167.31元/头，外购仔猪养殖利润为亏损38.75元/头。 7. 三名直接参与季度定价谈判的消息人士表示，一家全球铝生产商向日本买家提出，10月至12月原铝发货升水为每公吨310美元，较本季度下降22%。 8. 上期所数据显示，上周铜库存减少17120吨，铝库存减少12299吨，锌库存减少2285吨，铅库存减少1914吨，镍库存减少150吨，锡库存增加363吨。 9. 据Mysteel，邢台地区部分钢厂、唐山市场主流钢厂上调焦炭价格，2026年8月31日零点执行。