Global flows: North America saw net inflows (longs added, shorts covered); EMEA
and APAC recorded small net outflows. US four-week holdings turned positive for
the first time, sitting at the 37th percentile since 2015; Europe, Japan, China
and Hong Kong remain overall neutral. Historically the S&P 500 typically rallies
one week after the Jackson Hole central bank symposium but shows mean reversion
in weeks three to four, implying risk of a short-lived rebound followed by
divergent, slightly weaker performance over the next few weeks to one month.
Buy-side in the US is concentrated in tech and consumer, with software
outperforming semiconductors. Over last week’s five trading days, hedge funds
increased short positions in tech and healthcare by ~3%. Hedge funds sold US
healthcare and bought European healthcare; historically the two-region spread
has an 86% chance of at least partial convergence within two months. (Source: JP
Morgan)
