A government draft forecast shows Russia has cut its 2026 oil output forecast to a 17-year low, citing the Russia-Ukraine war. The draft also trims fuel export forecasts for 2026–27 and will be finalised at end-September for use in the budget. Compared with projections published in May, 2026–29 oil output forecasts have been reduced by 16–20 mln tonnes. In the base case, Russia’s crude output will fall 17.2 mln tonnes this year to 494.2 mln tonnes (9.88 mln bpd), the lowest since 2009. Output is

A government draft forecast shows Russia has cut its 2026 oil output forecast to a 17-year low, citing the Russia-Ukraine war. The draft also trims fuel export forecasts for 2026–27 and will be finalised at end-September for use in the budget. Compared with projections published in May, 2026–29 oil output forecasts have been reduced by 16–20 mln tonnes. In the base case, Russia’s crude output will fall 17.2 mln tonnes this year to 494.2 mln tonnes (9.88 mln bpd), the lowest since 2009. Output is expected to recover to 500.0 mln tonnes next year but remain 16 mln tonnes below the prior forecast; 2028–29 production is projected to rise further yet stay below 2025 levels.